Long term survival will depend on numbers, location and most of all planning. The first thing any survivalist will tell you is to have your bug out location picked out and several routes mapped out to get there. I figure the only way to actually survive long term is to get to a remote location with enough people and farmland and build a fort. A mall or Costco will only sustain you for about a month, maybe two. But if you are able to build a good defensible fort in the country side plant some crops get some livestock with about 40 to 50 people then you can last indefinitely. And if you are in a place that has an actual winter you can venture out during those months and pick off all the frozen zeds before spring.
Agreed. The problem is people make noise and building a fort makes noise. I agree with your synopsis. I figure you'd have to split your adults and older teens up into thirds. First third security, roving and stationary (preferably towers). Second third farming, hunting and scavenging. Final third building what needs to be built.
The noise thing can't be avoided, that's where the planning comes in. You will have to be at your bug out location on a regular basis building and prepping it for occupancy. I've read a bunch of survival guides and survivalist websites, they all have the same tone to them, planning and stockpiling is the key. A couple of them even give descriptions on how to set up a network of people and how to communicate with them wtshtf. They're quiet informative. However you do have to sift through the paranoid redneck rederick.
You mention Redneck as though it is something bad. The term Redneck originated from farmers working in the sun until their neck is sunburnt red. Give me a bunch of rednecks when the work needs to get done.
I live in my bug out location. It won't take much to get my home finished in case of SHTF.